With markets on everything from individual candidates to ballot measures, traders on the prediction market Kalshi exchanged more than $2.5 billion seeking to turn their election smarts into profit.
That sum was almost double the amount traded in markets on the 2024 general election, the company said. Ultimately, the candidates that Kalshi markets favored won 95% of congressional or gubernatorial midterm races, according to a CBS News analysis of market odds from a week before the election.
Experts say that the election markets get so many races right because of the large volume of people participating, and the availability of high quality information to base trades on.
“These are the biggest, most liquid prediction election markets we’ve ever had,” said Eric Zitzewitz, an economics professor at Dartmouth College who has studied political prediction markets dating back to 1880.
“It’s no surprise they were quite well-calibrated,” he wrote to CBS News following the election.